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A "soft landing" scenario is unlikely for the US economy, Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. "We're seeing a much more cautious low-income consumer," Fraser said. AdvertisementIt's going to be tough for the US to stick an economic soft landing, and rampant inflation is hitting lower-income Americans hard, Citi CEO Jane Fraser said. "It's hard to get a soft landing," Fraser told CNBC on Monday. Yet, Fraser cautioned against declaring a soft landing was a done deal.
Persons: Jane Fraser, Fraser, , Gary Shilling, Roukaya Ibrahim Organizations: Citi, Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve
A recession by early next year could send stocks down 30%, says BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim. AdvertisementThere are two factors signaling a recession by year-end or early 2025, and a downturn could spark a 30% correction in stocks, according to BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim. "But eventually, the unemployment rate is going to take higher and that's going to lead to concerns about a recession." Ibrahim isn't alone in calling a recession and a steep plunge in the stock market. Wall Street veteran Gary Shilling, known for predicting the mid-2000s mortgage bubble, is also forecasting a 30% stock market crash by the end of this year, with a recession likely to crush speculative bets that have piled up in recent years.
Persons: Roukaya Ibrahim, Gary Shilling, , Ibrahim, Ibrahim isn't Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Bloomberg Locations: Friday's, China, Europe
A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury
Read previewToday's job market looks to be on solid footing, but there are subtle signs that hiring is starting to weaken, upping the odds that a recession strikes. The job market is already flashing key signs of weakness, and a hiring slowdown could be around the corner, Wall Street strategists have warned. Here are four signs the stellar US job market may be about to stumble:Advertisement1. But job-cut announcements rose to 257,254 over the first quarter, according to the career transitioning firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The risk of a coming recession could rise if the job market continues to slow, some forecasters have warned.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, it's Organizations: Service, Street, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, National Federation of Independent Business, CNBC
“I sit here today to express my deepest sorrows for the families of Hana, Tate, Madisyn, Justin and to all those affected on November 30, 2021,” Jennifer Crumbley said. The parents failed to properly secure the firearm, as James Crumbley hid it in their bedroom but did not use any locking device, the prosecution argued. By contrast, James Crumbley did not testify in his trial, and his attorney argued he simply didn’t know about his son’s plans or mental issues. Still, Jennifer Crumbley was convicted of four counts of involuntary manslaughter in early February, and James Crumbley was convicted of the same counts in March. My actions were that of any other parent,” James Crumbley wrote.
Persons: James, Jennifer Crumbley, Cheryl Matthews, , ” Matthews, James Crumbley, Jennifer Crumbley “, Tate, Madisyn, Justin, ” Jennifer Crumbley, ” “, Ethan, Nicole Beausoleil, Madisyn Baldwin, ” Beausoleil, Ethan don’t, , , Justin Shilling’s, Craig, Craig Shilling, Justin Shilling, Bill Pugliano, , Justin’s, Jill Soave, ” Reina St, Juliana, Hana, Karen McDonald, ” McDonald, McDonald, Crumbley, remorseful, James Crumbley’s, Ethan Crumbley, Sig, St, Tate Myre, Jennifer, “ I’ve, ” James Crumbley, Celina Tebor, Nicki Brown, Antoinette Radford, Maureen Chowdhury Organizations: CNN, Oakland, Opportunity, Prosecutors, Oxford High School Locations: Oxford , Michigan, Detroit, Oakland, Hana, Oakland County
The U.S. economy has avoided a recession so far but the risk of a deeper economic downturn still looms, according to financial analyst Gary Shilling. "Small businesses are very sensitive to economic conditions because they don't tend to be very heavily capitalized," Shilling told CNBC. However, the labor market at large is a key reason the U.S. has thus far avoided a recession. "You haven't had that weakness in labor markets that, I think, you normally would have had and would have [caused] a recession [in 2023]," Shilling said. However, Shilling is watching for signs of a slowing labor market.
Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, We've, it's Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Federal Locations: U.S
The central bank's current chief, Jerome Powell, is yet to defeat his mythical beast — and Wall Street is getting worried. Powell warned on Wednesday that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over after annualized price growth accelerated to 3.2% in February. AdvertisementRaising the alarmBank of America analysts have suggested that stubborn inflation could mean the Fed doesn't start cutting rates until March next year. It's no wonder, then, that investors are waiting impatiently for the Fed to cut rates. Fundstrat's famously bullish boss, Tom Lee, proclaimed this week that it's dropping "like a rock" and the first rate cut is still likely to be in June.
Persons: , Paul Volcker, Jerome Powell, Powell, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn, Greenlight, Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, Gary Shilling, Julia La Roche, We've, Merrill Lynch's, they've, Shilling, It's, Fundstrat's, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, of America, CNBC, Trust, Wall Street, Fed
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
A jury found James Crumbley guilty of involuntary manslaughter late Thursday after about 11 hours of deliberation, holding him partially responsible for failing to prevent his son from carrying out Michigan’s deadliest school shooting. Mr. Crumbley’s wife, Jennifer Crumbley, was convicted of identical charges last month in the same Pontiac, Mich., courtroom, after a jury deliberated for roughly the same amount of time. The trials became a lightning rod for issues of parental responsibility at a time of high-profile gun violence by minors. The parenting skills of each defendant came under intense scrutiny, as did the shooter’s access to a handgun that his father had purchased. Now, two separate juries have taken the unusual step of holding a parent criminally responsible for a child’s horrific crimes.
Persons: James Crumbley, Crumbley’s, Jennifer Crumbley, Ethan, Madisyn Baldwin, Tate Myre, Justin Shilling, Hana St, Juliana Organizations: Oxford High School Locations: Mich, Oakland
James Crumbley is set to be sentenced on April 9 at 9 a.m., the judge said in court. James Crumbley was shackled and escorted out of the courtroom after the verdict was read and affirmed by each juror. Nicole Beausoleil, the mother of Madisyn Baldwin, reacts to the jury's verdict in the trial of James Crumbley on March 14, 2024. In Michigan, a parent has a legal duty and James Crumbley did not meet that duty,” she said. “James Crumbley was presented with the easiest, most glaring opportunities to prevent the deaths of these four students, and he did nothing,” McDonald said.
Persons: James Crumbley, Crumbley, Ethan Crumbley, Jennifer Crumbley, , Nicole Beausoleil, Madisyn Baldwin, Bill Pugliano, Hana St, Juliana, Justin Shilling, Karen McDonald, “ James Crumbley, Mariell Lehman, , James, , McDonald, Robin Buckson, Jennifer Crumbley’s, Jeff Kowalsky, Ethan, , Craig Shilling, Justin Shilling’s, ” Shilling, Steve St, Hana, Buck Myre, Tate Myre’s, it’s, ” Myre, we’ve, Madisyn, ” Beausoleil, James Crumbley’s, Karen, SIG Sauer, Derringer, Prosecutors, Lehman, “ James, Shawn Hopkins, Tate Myre, ” McDonald, ” Lehman Organizations: CNN, Sauer, Oxford High School, Detroit, Prosecutors, Getty, Oxford, Mental, SIG, SIG Sauer, WXYZ, Oxford High, CNN Prosecutors Locations: Michigan, Oakland, AFP, United States, Hana St, Oxford , Michigan
CNN —During a pivotal meeting with school employees hours before the mass shooting at a Michigan high school, James Crumbley told his son there were “people you can talk to,” a school counselor testified Monday in the father’s manslaughter trial. Hopkins testified “on the surface level” it appeared James Crumbley was showing the appropriate level of care for his then-15-year-old son, Ethan Crumbley. The case against James Crumbley, like the one against his wife, is set to test the limits of who is responsible for a mass shooting. James Crumbley did not protest, according to the counselor. “You will not hear that James Crumbley knew what his son was going to do,” she said.
Persons: James Crumbley, , , James, Shawn Hopkins, Hopkins, Ethan Crumbley, James Crumbley’s, Cheryl Matthews, Crumbley, Ethan, James ’, Jennifer Crumbley, Jennifer Crumbley’s, Nicholas Ejak, Jennifer, Ejak, ” Ejak, it’s, St, Juliana, Justin Shilling, Madisyn Baldwin, Tate Myre, Marc Keast, ” Keast, Mariell Lehman, Edward Wagrowski, Ethan texted, ’ ” Ethan, Wagrowski, CNN’s Lauren del Valle, Nic F, Anderson Organizations: CNN, Oxford High, Wednesday, Oxford High School, Prosecutors, Oakland, SIG Sauer Locations: Michigan
Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.
Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, , Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at how Google has gone from the tech industry's vanguard of cool to just another boring company . AdvertisementGoogle has long stayed atop Silicon Valley's volatile popularity contest — but the best place to work in tech is starting to feel like any other business , Business Insider's Hugh Langley and Lara O'Reilly write. Bureaucracy, an aversion to risk, and deference to Wall Street over employees — things Google long eschewed — have become the norm. The latest example is the debacle surrounding Gemini — its flashy new AI model that faced backlash for being too "woke."
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, Hugh Langley, Lara O'Reilly, Alistair Barr, Sundar Pichai, Hugh, Lara, Mateusz Wlodarczyk, BI's Peter Kafka, it's, David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Snowflake's Frank Slootman, Ozgur Hakan Aslan Toyota, Boxabl, Elon Musk, Tesla, Hewlett Packard, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Google, Business, Gemini, Meta, Big Tech, OpenAI, Corporations, Nvidia, SEC, Universal Music Group, Universal, BI Locations: , New York, London
Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."
Persons: , Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American
Reliable and affordable food and commodity imports are more important to a net food importer like Kenya than to some other countries. Perhaps more importantly, a critical part of the world's food supply system remains disrupted, undermining food security and raising the underlying costs of cross-border trade. The governments of Kenya and Ukraine are also working together on food security. Meanwhile, Russia's own efforts to play a part in rebuilding food security have been more a public relations exercise than real action. Although Russian sources have claimed that such shipments have begun, there is still little evidence of Russian food aid arriving in Africa.
Persons: Timothy Njagi Njeru, Kalya Kiptiony, Dr Abraham Korir SingOei, William Ruto, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia's, Dr Njeru, Lensa Omune Organizations: Tegemeo Institute, Kenyan, Initiative, Kenya's Ministry of Foreign, Diaspora Affairs, International Food Policy Research Institute, Insider Studios, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office Locations: East Africa, Ukraine, Kenya, Russian, Nairobi, Russia, Africa, Horn, Port, Mombasa
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
CNN —It’s going on two entire hours since Taylor Swift showed up in any of my social media feeds. If there’s such a thing as too much Taylor Swift, America may be reaching a saturation point with America’s sweetheart. Taylor Swift is 34. Yes, Swift sells. But, no, we don’t need daily coverage or detailed analysis every time the new guy puts his arm around her.
Persons: Lynda Gorov, CNN —, Taylor Swift, I’m, , Swift, she’s, , Department ”, don’t, haters, haven’t, That’s, Travis Kelce, I’d, who’s Organizations: CNN, Department, Snake Fam Locations: California, America, Brazil, China, Philippines, New Zealand
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewFrom Michael Burry's "Big Short" against the housing market to Warren Buffett's warnings during the dot-com bubble, some of the biggest names in finance have taken contrarian stances that paid off. Legendary forecaster Gary Shilling is also defying market consensus by warning the S&P 500 could crash 30%, and predicting a recession will strike this year. He told Business Insider in an interview he actively seeks to disagree with Wall Street for several reasons. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: , Michael Burry's, Warren Buffett's, Gary Shilling, Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, John Paulson, doesn't, Copernicus, David Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Newton
Jennifer Crumbley, along with her husband James Crumbley, were charged with involuntary manslaughter in connection with the massacre, making them the first parents in America to face charges for a mass school shooting carried out by their own child. AdvertisementProsecutors painted Jennifer Crumbley as an unaware and negligent mother who was consumed with an extramarital affair. Prosecutors told jurors that Jennifer Crumbley "abruptly" ended the meeting after just 11 minutes and the parents did not take their son home. Booking photos of James and Jennifer Crumbley. Please don't judge me for what my son did," Jennifer Crumbley said in a text message amid the shooting, said Andrew Smith, the COO of a real-estate company where Jennifer Crumbley worked.
Persons: , Jennifer Crumbley, James Crumbley, Prosecutors, Karen McDonald, could've, McDonald, Hana, Juliana, Justin Shilling, Madisyn Baldwin, James, Jennifer Crumbley's, Shannon Smith, Smith, Andrew Smith, Jennifer Organizations: Service, Oxford High School, Business, Tate, Oakland County Sheriff's Department Locations: Michigan, America, Oakland, Hana St
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewIn an unprecedented verdict on Tuesday, Jennifer Crumbley was found guilty for her son's 2021 rampage that left four of his Michigan classmates dead. And the verdict should put parents on alert that they, too, could be held criminally responsible for the heinous acts of their children who have easy access to guns. Prosecutors painted Jennifer Crumbley as an unaware and negligent mother who was consumed with an extramarital affair . Kris Brown, the president of Brady, a non-profit working to prevent gun violence, said that "irresponsible behavior" like that of Jennifer Crumbley "is why 76% of school shooters under the age of 18 get their firearms from home."
Persons: , Jennifer Crumbley, it's, Neama Rahmani, James Crumbley, Rahmani, Karen McDonald, Hana, Juliana, Justin Shilling, Madisyn Baldwin, Mark Bederow, Bederow, Jennifer Crumbley's, bode, Kris Brown, Brady, Brown Organizations: Service, Business, West, Prosecutors, Tate, Defense Locations: Michigan, America, United States, Oakland, Hana St, Manhattan
Mother of Michigan Gunman Found Guilty of Manslaughter
  + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Jacey Fortin | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Michigan jurors, after 11 hours of deliberations, found Jennifer Crumbley guilty of involuntary manslaughter on Tuesday for the gun rampage committed by her son, who carried out the state’s deadliest school shooting more than two years ago. Ms. Crumbley, 45, was convicted on four counts of involuntary manslaughter, one for each of the four students who were shot to death by her son at Oxford High School on Nov. 30, 2021. The son, Ethan Crumbley, who was 15 at the time, used a pistol to kill Madisyn Baldwin, 17; Tate Myre, 16; Justin Shilling, 17; and Hana St. Juliana, 14. She faces a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison after being convicted of all four counts. Ethan, who pleaded guilty to 24 charges including first-degree murder, was sentenced last year to life in prison without the possibility of parole.
Persons: Jennifer Crumbley, Crumbley, Ethan Crumbley, Madisyn Baldwin, Tate Myre, Justin Shilling, Hana St, Juliana, Ethan, Crumbley’s, James Crumbley Organizations: Oxford High School Locations: Michigan
Jennifer Crumbley looked down at her clasped hands as the verdict was read. Live updates: Jury reaches verdict in Jennifer Crumbley trialJennifer Crumbley exits from the courtroom in shackles on Tuesday after her guilty verdict. Over a week of testimony, law enforcement officials, school employees, shooting victims and those who knew Jennifer Crumbley testified for the prosecution. Jennifer Crumbley took the stand in her own defense and, in a remarkable moment, expressed no regret for her actions. Jennifer Crumbley testified the school meeting was “nonchalant” and “brief.”“We agreed that it might stress him out more to do his school remotely the rest of the day.
Persons: Jennifer Crumbley, Bill Pugliano, it’s, we’ve, ” Craig Shilling, Justin Shilling, , James, Jennifer Crumbley’s, James Crumbley’s, Ethan, , Karen McDonald, Ethan himself, Shannon Smith, ” Smith, “ I’ve, Hana St, Juliana, Madisyn Baldwin, Tate Myre, Prosecutors, Crumbley, Ethan “, ” McDonald, Tate, Madisyn, Justin Organizations: CNN, Oxford High School, WXYZ, Defense Locations: Oxford , Michigan, Detroit, Oakland
Over a week of testimony, law enforcement officials, school employees, shooting victims and those who knew Jennifer Crumbley testified for the prosecution. Jennifer Crumbley took the stand in her own defense and, in a remarkable moment, expressed no regret for her actions. Their son Ethan pleaded guilty to one count of terrorism causing death, four counts of murder and 19 other charges related to the deadly rampage. But in her testimony, Crumbley testified that safely storing the gun was her husband’s responsibility. Jennifer Crumbley testified the school meeting was “nonchalant” and “brief.”“We agreed that it might stress him out more to do his school remotely the rest of the day.
Persons: Jennifer Crumbley, CNN —, Ethan, , Karen McDonald, Ethan himself, Shannon Smith, it’s, ” Smith, “ I’ve, , Crumbley’s, James, Prosecutors, Hana St, Juliana, Justin Shilling, Madisyn Baldwin, Tate Myre, Crumbley, Ethan “, ” McDonald, Tate, Madisyn, Justin Organizations: CNN, Oxford High School, Defense, CNN First Locations: Michigan, Oakland
The last one was during the Great Recession, brought about by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The extended slump in bank lending comes as many Wall Street experts continue to project a pessimistic outlook for the economy, despite the surprisingly upbeat trend seen in 2023. Recession warningsThe US economy defied forecasters' gloomy predictions by dodging a recession last year, with strong consumer spending helping to prop up growth. AdvertisementBut not everyone on Wall Street is so cheerful. It might be a mild recession or a heavy recession," he added, noting it's possible that the downturn bites in 2024.
Persons: , Jeffrey Gundlach, Henry Kravis, David Rosenberg, Steve Hanke, Gary Shilling, Continentale, Janet Yellen, haven't, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Hanke, Rosenberg, it'd Organizations: Service, Business, Governors, Federal, Wall, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, JPMorgan, Fox Business Locations: Bank, Ukraine, Gaza
Fourteen months between a deadly high school shooting and another at MSU. Ossege was severely wounded during the Nov. 30, 2021, attack on Oxford High School, about 40 miles (60 kilometers) north of Detroit. On the day of the Oxford shooting, a bullet traveled through Ossege’s clavicle and ribs and exited her back, causing a concussion of the spinal cord that left her briefly paralyzed. An Oakland County sheriff’s deputy who befriended Ossege during the Oxford shooting drove to MSU, picked her up and took her home. When Ossege is home from school, she makes the 30-minute drive north from Oxford to Mayfield Township, where Blaze is boarded.
Persons: Kylie Ossege, Blaze, ” Ossege, , , Ossege, Hana St, Juliana, Justin Shilling, Madisyn Baldwin, Tate, Ethan Crumbley, Marita, Uber, Daniel Sciubba, Sciubba, ” Sciubba, “ I’m, “ He’s, Robert Bumsted Organizations: Oxford High School, Michigan State University, MSU, Oxford, Oxford Elementary School, East, Northwell Health, Lenox Hill, Oakland County sheriff’s Locations: MAYFIELD, Mich, Michigan, Detroit, Pontiac, Oxford, East Lansing, New York City, U.S, Oakland County, Mayfield Township, New York
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